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In this newsletter, we share our regular features alongside a new case study assessing Iran’s nuclear programme and some exclusive analysis from our analyst aboard USS Dwight D Eisenhower in the Red Sea.

 

We provide information on enhancements to our Janes tradecraft training courses and Janes Markets Forecast platform, both of which are coming soon.

 

We also invite you to join us on 3 July as we partner with Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s team of maritime experts on their Geopolitical Risk webinar series to explore ‘Shipping’s evolving security threats’.

Case Study

Iran's nuclear programme 

www.janes.comimagesdefault-source4.-insightscase-studiesjanes-assessment-of-irans-nuclear-programme

Using Janes assured Foundational Intelligence and interconnected data and analysis, which can be integrated into your own system, you can gain a situational awareness of Iran, its nuclear programme, as well as the country’s intent and progress in potentially achieving a viable nuclear weapons capability.

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Red Sea Analysis    

In June Janes analyst Michael Fabey was invited to join ship and carrier strike group officials aboard the USS Dwight D Eisenhower and guided-missile destroyer USS Laboon as they continued their increased operations in the Red Sea. Here is a small selection of his exclusive analysis pieces:

 

US Navy officials note Houthi ability to adapt tactics in Red Sea attacks

US Navy refines distributive operational concepts in Red Sea

US Navy hones surface combatant expeditionary reloading in Red Sea

US Navy Red Sea operations provide lessons for Western Pacific

Eisenhower carrier strike group officials note maintenance concerns

Radar and tactics modifications help USN forces counter Houthi unmanned threats  

USN relies more on carrier air wing and non-kinetic operations to counter unmanned threats in Red Sea

In Red Sea, US Navy battles missiles, unmanned threats, and misinformation campaign

Updates coming soon: Janes Tradecraft Training 

Building on Janes’ 125+ years of experience in the open-source arena, Janes provides a comprehensive series of live, in-person and online, and self-paced OSINT tradecraft training courses. Analysts, researchers, and supervisors can learn open-source intelligence (OSINT) from our deep subject-matter experts and experienced instructors. Our tried-and-tested curriculum is progressive and practical. For more information on our in-person and online, and self-paced training, please contact training.team@janes.com 

 

On 1 August 2024 we will publish a substantial update to our Janes Tradecraft Self-Paced courses. Based on feedback from early adopters and collaboration with a wider group of colleagues, we have streamlined and enhanced these courses into a new structure. For a more detailed summary, please see here

Coming soon: Enhancements to Janes Markets Forecast

At Janes we are committed to continuously improving your user experience. Following customer feedback, we are enhancing Janes Markets Forecast to make the data and analysis you rely on easier to access by:

    • Enhancing export performance for quicker full downloads 
    • Optimising page loading times for faster access to the data you need
    • Improving your homepage view with simplified widgets for easier access to reports and analytics 

To find out more, please speak to your customer success manager or email customer.care@janes.com

Join the discussion: Shipping's evolving security threats

On 3 July Janes analysts will partner with Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s team of maritime experts on their Geopolitical Risk webinar series to explore why it is no longer sufficient to consider maritime security on a reactive and geographically specific basis.  

Key discussion points will include: 

  • How vulnerable are maritime chokepoints and what are the implications of more disruptions to maritime trade?
  • Have economic sanctions inadvertently undermined maritime safety?
  • Can navies protect commercial shipping? And will they?
  • Should we be more concerned about who owns maritime infrastructure?

Sign up here to Join us on 3 July at 2 PM GMT. 

Country Intelligence

Our Country Intelligence analysts share some recent insights from their team. If you want to add Country Intelligence to your subscription, please contact your Janes Account Manager

 

Scenario analysis: Israel's options for restoring deterrence against Hizbullah in southern Lebanon

Since 8 October 2023 Israel and Hizbullah have been engaged in a low-intensity attritional conflict that was triggered by the Israel-Gaza war. As this conflict has drawn on, Israeli government and military officials have indicated that without a major change to Hizbullah's presence along its border Israel will be forced to intervene in Lebanon to push the group back and restore security to its northern communities. Elliot Chapman analyses the two scenarios that Israel could pursue to establish greater security along its northern border

 

Sporadic election violence likely to decline after the formation of a coalition government, indicating return to pre-election stability in India

On 9 June Narendra Modi became the prime minister of India for a third term and formed a coalition government. Janes analysis indicates that the security situation in India is likely to return to pre-election levels of activity, but isolated violence during upcoming state elections and by-elections in 2024 is likely. 

 

Russia's new deputy defence ministers' appointments almost certainly indicate greater role of Ministry of Defence for both industry and social stability

On 17 June Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed four new deputy defence ministers – three taking up roles in financial functions and internal management, and the fourth in the social care of military personnel. Alex Petric assesses how these appointments reflect efforts by Moscow to both strengthen the military's loyalty to the government and increase weapons production as the Ukraine conflict continues.

 

PMF's varied and lucrative sources of financing likely to provide a significant degree of self-sustenance in the medium term

The PMF was set up in 2014 following the fall of Mosul to the Islamic State and was part of an effort to defend Iraq against the group. Especially since the formation of two Iran-aligned governments in Baghdad in 2018 and 2022, it has established extensive networks of patronage and captured control of key public infrastructure that provide it with a steady source of significant revenue. Anant Venkatesh explores these sources of funding and comments upon their sustainability.

 

JNIM attack claim highlights persistent militant threat and coup risk amid increasing political instability in Burkina Faso

On 16 June JNIM militants claimed to have conducted an assault on military barracks in Mansila in Burkina Faso's Sahel region on 11 June, killing at least 104 soldiers. Heather Nicell evaluates whether the ongoing security situation in Burkina Faso will likely lead to a military coup attempt in the immediate (up to four weeks) to short (one to six months) term.

A focus on Asia-Pacific

 

Special Report: Australian Army applies AI in unmanned systems tests

The Australian Army is applying artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to support its testing of autonomous systems including unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) and loitering munitions.

 

Special Report: China inducts additional J-20 stealth fighters

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is equipping additional combat units with the Chengdu J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon' fifth-generation stealth fighter.

 

New Chinese airborne early warning aircraft emerges

A new variant of China's Shaanxi KJ-500 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft has entered service.

 

Republic of Korea Army completes Surion acquisition

The Republic of Korea Army (RoKA) has completed its acquisition of Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) KUH-1 Surion helicopters, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) said on 24 June.

 

Poland delivers five S-70i Black Hawks to Philippines

The Philippines has taken delivery of the first batch of five Sikorsky S-70i Black Hawks from its second acquisition order of 32 helicopters.

 

China marshals ground forces near Indian border

The People's Liberation Army Ground Force (PLAGF) deployed near the Rutog garrison in Tibet has likely departed for exercises, Umbra synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery shows.

 

China revises military audit regulations amid accelerated anti-corruption campaign

Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is also chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), has signed an order to promulgate revised regulations governing audits of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

 

Indonesia proposes to equip ‘Red White' frigates with Turkish missiles
Indonesia's defence ministry has proposed that its two future ‘Red White' frigates be equipped with a selection of combat systems, including missiles, that are sourced from Turkey.

 

Equipment highlights

Asia - South Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) has launched the first of two 3,200 tonne corvettes on order for the Philippine Navy. see more 

Europe - Airbus Helicopters has commenced the flight-test campaign of the NHIndustries (NHI) NH90 for French special forces. The NHI chief stakeholder announced the milestone at the Eurosatory 2024 defence exhibition in Paris on 18 June. see more 

Europe - The German Bundeswehr showcased its Puma S1 infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) equipped with a counter-unmanned aircraft system (C-UAS) from Dedrone at the Eurosatory 2024 defence exhibition held in Paris from 17 to 21 June. see more 

Procurement highlights

Asia - The US Department of State has approved a possible sale of loitering munitions to Taiwan to improve the country's asymmetric warfare capabilities. see more

Asia - South Korea has acquired its first batch of Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) aircraft after three aircraft were delivered on 19 June. see more

Middle East - The second of the Israeli Navy's two new landing ships has arrived in Haifa from Pascagoula in the United States, the Israel Defense Forces announced on 16 June. It released a photograph showing INS Komemiyut sailing in formation with the first landing ship, INS Nahshon, and other Israeli naval vessels. see more 

 

Janes in the news

Janes analyst Olivia Savage was recently interviewed by British Forces Broadcasting Services for its podcast ‘War of the playground’. Olivia highlights the technological advancements she has witnessed coming in to use on the battlefield including experimental AI-enabled unmanned ariel vehicles (UAVs), which use voice recognition and pre-selected targets to reduce susceptibility of Russian jamming.

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The news in this email is only a small portion of the information available at Janes intelligence. Click any title to view the full text or Login for a complete listing of articles.

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